Читаем Putin's Wars полностью

In 1992 Brzezinski warned: “The crucial issue here . . . is the future stability and independence of Ukraine.”^[50] In 2012—twenty years later—in his book Strategic Vision, Brzezinski repeated this warning, writing: “It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”^[51] Brzezinski’s warning is, more than ever, still relevant today. It is not without reason that Polish analysts especially, or analysts of Polish origin, warn about the dangers of Russia’s new imperialism.^[52] Their country was, in the twentieth century (and in the centuries before), the main victim in Europe of the aggression from the imperialist powers, which dismembered and occupied the country. When the Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski was asked: “Can you imagine any kind of renewed geopolitical conflict to your west in your lifetime?” he answered “I have a vivid imagination, but no, I cannot imagine an armed conflict between us and Germany.”^[53] When asked: “Does your imagination extend to the possibility of a future conflict to the east?” he answered: “Our relations with Russia, like yours [U.S.A.], are pragmatic but brittle. And unfortunately, after the war between Russia and Georgia, I’m afraid conflict in Europe is imaginable.”^[54] Another East European politician, Czech President Vaclav Havel, expressed the same concern sixteen years earlier: “I have said it so often: if the West does not stabilize the East, the East will destabilize the West.”^[55] This is a warning that should be taken seriously.

Notes

1.

Kennan, “Russia: Seven Years Later,” in Memoirs 1925–1950, 519.

2.

Alexander J. Motyl, “Empire Falls,” Foreign Affairs 85, no. 4 (July-August 2006).

3.

Manuel Castells, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture: Volume II: The Power of Identity (Oxford: Blackwell, 1997), 42.

4.

Trenin, Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story, 233.

5.

Putin, “Novyy integratsionnyy proekt dlya Evrazii: budushchee kotoroe rozhdaetsya segodnya.”

6.

“Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation.” http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_25468.htm.

7.

Chrystia Freeland, “From Empire to Nation State,” Financial Times (July 10, 1997).

8.

Freeland, “From Empire to Nation State.”

9.

Freeland, “From Empire to Nation State.”

10.

John Thornhill, “Russia Signs Union Treaty with Belarus,” Financial Times (April 4, 1997).

11.

Grigory Yavlinsky criticized the Union Treaty with the following words: “You cannot talk about negotiating integration with a state where there is political repression and the conditions for the normal existence of the opposition are ruled out and the work of the media is restricted.” (Quoted in John Thornhill, “Belarus Link Alarms Russian Liberals,” Financial Times (April 2, 1997).)

12.

Sophie Shihab, “M. Eltsine cherche à minimiser les conséquences de l’ “union” entre la Russie et la Biélorussie,” Le Monde (April 8, 1997).

13.

Ronald D. Asmus, Opening NATO’s Doors: How the Alliance Remade Itself for a New Era (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), 141.

14.

Asmus, Opening NATO’s Doors, 141.

15.

“L’avertissement biélorusse,” Le Monde (April 3, 1997).

16.

Brzezinski, “The Premature Partnership,” 79.

17.

Brzezinski, “The Premature Partnership,” 76.

18.

Gaidar, Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia, 17.

19.

Nargis Kassenova, Alexander Libman, and Jeremy Smith, “Discussing the Eurasian Customs Union and Its Impact on Central Asia,” Central Asia Policy Forum 4 (February 2013), 6. http://www.centralasiaprogram.org/images/Policy_Forum_4,_February_2013.pdf.

20.

Kassenova et al., “Discussing the Eurasian Customs Union and Its Impact on Central Asia.”

21.

Fyodor Lukyanov, “Imperiya Naoborot,” Gazeta.ru (November 17, 2011).

22.

Lukyanov, “Imperiya Naoborot.”

23.

Lukyanov, “Imperiya Naoborot.”

24.

“What Precisely Vladimir Putin Said at Bucharest,” Zerkalo Nedeli (April 25, 2008). http://www.mw.ua/1000:1600/62750/.

25.

Gleb Pavlovsky, “Will Ukraine Lose Its Sovereignty?” Russkiy Zhurnal (March 16, 2009). http://www.russ.ru.

26.

“No One Needs Monsters: Desovereignization of Ukraine,” Interview with Sergey Karaganov, Russkiy Zhurnal (March 20, 2009). http://www.russ.ru.

27.