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Livia was afraid, some people allege, that Augustus might bring [Agrippa] back to make him emperor, and so she smeared with poison some figs which were still ripening on trees from which Augustus was in the habit of picking the fruit with his own hands. She then ate those which had not been smeared, and offered the poisoned fruit to him. At any rate, he fell sick from this or some other cause.

Tiberius was recalled and rushed to Nola. According to Dio, Augustus died before his return and Livia concealed the news until her son had reached her side, fearing that in his absence there “might be some uprising.” Guards were posted in the street around the villa and optimistic bulletins were issued from time to time. But Suetonius claims that Tiberius arrived in time to see Augustus alive. The dying man had a long talk with him in private, after which he attended to no further important business.

When visitors arrived from Rome, Augustus wanted to hear the latest news of Drusus’ daughter, Livilla, who was ill. Finally, he kissed his wife, saying “Goodbye, Livia. Never forget our marriage.” Just before he died, his wits seemed to wander, for he suddenly cried out in terror: “Forty young men are carrying me off!” (This was later interpreted as a prophecy, for the same number of Praetorians would form the guard of honor that conveyed him to his lying in state.)

Augustus had always hoped for a quick and painless death, and the gods granted his wish. The date was August 19, a little more than a month before his seventy-seventh birthday. He had been ruler of the Roman empire for almost forty-four years.

Immediately, a codicillus, an order, was sent to Planasia to execute Agrippa Postumus. The tribune in command of Agrippa’s guard told a centurion to see to the matter. The young man was strong and large and put up a fight, despite the fact that he had no weapons. He was eventually dispatched, with some difficulty. The deed was done only in the nick of time, for a slave of his called Clemens, having heard of Augustus’ death, immediately took a cargo ship to Planasia to rescue Agrippa, either by force or trickery. Unfortunately for Agrippa, the boat sailed slowly and Clemens arrived too late.

Meanwhile, the commander of the island guard set sail for Rome, where he presented himself to Tiberius and reported that the execution had been carried out. Tiberius vehemently denied having had anything to do with the matter, and insisted that the officer give an account of himself to the Senate.

According to Tacitus, the author of the codicillus was Gaius Sallustius Crispus, who, like Maecenas, did not trouble to hold public office, but operated behind the scenes. The grand-nephew of the historian Sallust, he became a “repository of imperial secrets.”

Alarmed by Tiberius’ decision to open Agrippa’s death to public debate, Sallustius warned Livia that “palace secrets, and the advice of friends, and services performed by the army, were best undivulged…. The whole point of autocracy is that the accounts will not come right unless the ruler is the only auditor.”

Tiberius was persuaded to remain silent. The matter was closed.

How should we best interpret the events surrounding the death of Augustus? The regime realized that the transition from one princeps to another, from the dominance of one man to the establishment of a dynasty, would be a time of great danger. All concerned took great pains to make everything run as smoothly as possible. The most likely threats would stem from civil dissidence in Italy and mutiny among the legions on the imperial frontiers. The focus for any trouble would be Agrippa Postumus, the last male representative of the Julian line.

The imagined account with which this book opens is an attempt to tell a coherent and feasible story of what occurred while rejecting as little as possible of the surviving ancient narratives. It incorporates most, but not quite all, that the sources report. It plausibly assumes that all the leading players—Augustus, Tiberius, and Livia, together with their advisers—devised a transition plan and were determined ruthlessly to implement it, whatever their personal feelings.